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Central & Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook # 10 for July 30th, 2019

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) continues to monitor 2 Tropical Cyclones and one area of interest in the Eastern Pacific & Central Pacific basins:

- Major Hurricane Erick: currently 840 miles ESE of Hilo & moving to the west at 17 mph. With maximum sustained winds of 130 mph (Category 4 Hurricane).

- Hurricane Flossie: currently 2,280 miles ESE of Hilo & moving westward at 14 mph. With maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (Category 1 Hurricane).

- Area of Interest in the East Pacific still has a 20% chance of formation in the next 5 days, we will continue to monitor this potential disturbance in the coming days.

Hurricane Erick rapidly intensified overnight into a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of over 130 mph at 10:30am this morning and is expected to continue to intensify through the rest of Tuesday and slowly weaken over the next few days. The eye of Hurricane Erick was more distinct in the latest satellite imagery. After reviewing the latest models for Major Hurricane Erick, it's still expected to past to the south of the Island of Hawaii around Friday morning into Saturday, most models were in an agreement that the center of Erick is still expected to past Hawaii Island approximately 45 to 150 miles to the south as moderate Tropical Storm. Wet Weather Associated with Erick along with breezy conditions is expected to come onshore Thursday night going into Saturday evening.

Tropical Storm Flossie: it's again still too early to determine the exact track and strength of Flossie and it impacts to Hawaii Island, we will have a better idea of the projected forecast around Friday and Saturday at the earliest as it expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin around late Friday night and early Saturday morning.

Currently, No Watches or Warnings are in effect at this time related to these disturbances.

The next HIRSC Team Update will be made at 23:00 Hours (11:00 pm) Tuesday Night.

Update on Tropical Storm Erick as of 11:00 am HST July 30th, 2019:

ERICK CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY FAR EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 144.1W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1050 MI...1695 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 144.1 West. Erick is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A slight turn to the west-northwest, with some slowing in forward speed, is expected later today. A general motion toward the west-northwest is then expected to continue through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts, making Erick a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected over the next day or so, with steady and significant weakening expected thereafter. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Erick will arrive in the Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days, potentially producing dangerous surf conditions, mainly along east facing shores. Please consult products from the National Weather Service in Honolulu for more information.

Tropical Storm Flossie Update as of 11:00am HST July 30th, 2019:

Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019 1100 AM HST Tue Jul 30 2019 Deep convection associated with Flossie has been increasing in both intensity and coverage during the past several hours, and the cyclone now consists of a well-organized central dense overcast with some broken outer bands. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are now both 4.0/65 kt and, based on this data, Flossie has been upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. Flossie is moving westward at about 12 kt steered by a mid-level ridge that is situated to the north of the tropical cyclone. This ridge is expected to be the primary steering feature during the next several days, and it should cause Flossie to move westward to west-northwestward at about the same forward speed through the weekend. The models are tightly clustered, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. This forecast lies near the consensus aids, which usually have the lowest track errors. The cyclone is expected to be in generally favorable environmental conditions to strengthen during the next day or so. After that time, however, the sea surface temperatures beneath the hurricane gradually decrease and the wind shear is expected to increase a little. A combination of these factors should end the strengthening trend and induce a slow weakening by the weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is a tad lower than the previous one, but it lies near the high end of the model guidance, in best agreement with the HCCA and IVDR consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 12.3N 121.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 12.7N 123.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 13.4N 125.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 14.2N 128.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 15.0N 130.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 16.3N 136.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 17.3N 142.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 18.1N 147.3W 75 KT 85 MPH

Area of Interest (Being Watched by the NHC) Update as of 8:00 am HST July 29th, 2019:

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 30 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Flossie, located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. 1. A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible late this week or this weekend while the system moves westward, away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

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