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Central & Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook # 11 for July 31st, 2019

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) continues to monitor 2 Tropical Cyclones and one area of interest in the Eastern Pacific & Central Pacific basins:

- Major Hurricane Erick: currently 690 miles ESE of Hilo & moving to the west at 17 mph. With maximum sustained winds of 125 mph (Category 3 Hurricane).

- Hurricane Flossie: currently 2,070 miles ESE of Hilo & moving westward at 15 mph. With maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (Category 1 Hurricane).

- Area of Interest in the East Pacific has 40% chance of formation in the next 5 days, we will continue to monitor this potential disturbance in the coming days.

Hurricane Erick had rapidly intensified into a major hurricane earlier today with maximum sustained winds peaking at 130 mph. The eye of Hurricane Erick, which was more distinct in satellite imagery earlier today has since disappear, showing signs of slight weakening. Based on the latest models for Major Hurricane Erick, it's still expected to past to the south of the Island of Hawaii around Friday morning into Saturday, most models were in an agreement that the center of Erick is still expected to past Hawaii Island approximately 45 to 150 miles to the south as Weak Hurricane/Strong Tropical Storm. Wet weather associated with Erick along with breezy and high surf conditions is expected to come onshore Thursday night going into Saturday evening.

Tropical Storm Flossie: it's again still too early to determine the exact track and strength of Flossie and it impacts to Hawaii Island, we will have a better idea of the projected forecast around Friday and Saturday at the earliest as it expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin around late Friday night and early Saturday morning.

Currently, No Watches or Warnings are in effect at this time related to these disturbances.

The next HIRSC Team Update will be made at 08:00 Hours (8:00 am) Wednesday morning.

Update on Tropical Storm Erick as of 11:00 am HST July 30th, 2019:

Hurricane Erick Advisory Number 16 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP062019 1100 PM HST Tue Jul 30 2019 ERICK STARTS GRADUALLY WEAKENING SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 146.3W ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 905 MI...1460 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 146.3 West. Erick is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). Little change is forecast during the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Erick is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Erick will arrive in the Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days, potentially producing dangerous surf conditions, mainly along east facing shores. Please consult products from the National Weather Service in Honolulu for more information.

Tropical Storm Flossie Update as of 11:00pm HST July 30th, 2019:

Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019 1100 PM HST Tue Jul 30 2019 High-resolution WindSat imagery from 0227 UTC gave quite a surprise when it arrived a few hours ago: Flossie is not as organized as it seemed. The low-level center was displaced about 40 n mi to the west of overshooting convective tops and mid-level rotation seen in infrared satellite images, the result of moderate to strong westerly shear. A 0513 UTC ASCAT-C pass also revealed an asymmetric wind field, with no tropical-storm-force winds in the southwestern quadrant. The initial intensity is held at 70 kt, mainly for the sake of continuity, but the ASCAT data and recent SATCON estimates suggest that it could be lower. Flossie continues to move west-northwestward (285 degrees), now at a speed of 13 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge centered along 24N is forecast to build westward toward the Hawaiian Islands over the next 3 days, with the flow on the southern side expected to keep Flossie moving west-northwestward or westward at a steady clip for the entire forecast period. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new NHC forecast has only been nudged northward from the previous one to account for the more-apparent initial position. It's difficult at the moment to see how Flossie will be able to strengthen much in the coming days. The cyclone's structure is already suffering from the effects of shear, and diagnostics from the SHIPS model suggest that the shear could increase further, or at least hold steady, during the next 48 hours. There's an opportunity for the shear to decrease a bit in 2-3 days, but by that time, Flossie will have reached marginally warm waters with little to no ocean heat content. Given these less-than-ideal environmental factors, the NHC intensity forecast has again been reduced from the previous one, and it generally lies between the HCCA and the Florida State Superensemble. This solution is still near the high end of the guidance envelope and above the conventional intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 13.5N 124.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 14.1N 126.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 14.8N 128.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 15.5N 131.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 16.1N 134.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 17.2N 139.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 18.0N 145.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 18.5N 150.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

Area of Interest (Being Watched by the NHC) Update as of 8:00 pm HST July 29th, 2019:

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Tue Jul 30 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Flossie, located more than a thousand miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development late this week, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the low moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.