Central & Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook # 9 for July 30th, 2019
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) continues to monitor 2 Tropical Cyclones and one area of interest in the Eastern Pacific & Central Pacific basins:
- Hurricane Erick: currently 1,015 miles ESE of Hilo & moving to the west at 17 mph. With maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (Category 1 Hurricane).
- Tropical Storm Flossie: currently 2,350 miles ESE of Hilo & moving westward at 16 mph. With maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. Flossie is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday Night.
- Area of Interest in the East Pacific has 20% chance of formation in the next 5 days, we will continue to monitor this potential disturbance in the coming days.
Based on the latest models reviewed, Hurricane Erick is still expected to past to the south of the Island of Hawaii around Friday morning into Saturday, most models were in an agreement that the center of Erick is expected to past Hawaii Island approximately 45 to 150 miles to the south. Wet Weather Associated with Erick along with breezy conditions is expected to come onshore Thursday night going into Saturday evening.
Tropical Storm Flossie: it's again still too early to determine the exact track of Flossie and it impacts to Hawaii Island, we will have a better idea of the projected forecast around Friday and Saturday at the earliest as it expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin around late Friday night and Early Saturday morning.
Currently, No Watches or Warnings are in effect at this time related to these disturbances.
The next HIRSC Team Update will be made at 11:00 Hours (11:00 am) Tuesday Morning.
Update on Tropical Storm Erick as of 11:00 pm HST July 29th, 2019:
Hurricane Erick Advisory Number 12 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP062019 1100 PM HST Mon Jul 29 2019 HURRICANE ERICK INTENSIFIES AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC FAR EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 141.4W ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1225 MI...1970 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 141.4 West. Erick is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwest course at a slower forward speed is expected to begin on Tuesday and continue through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through Wednesday. Weakening is expected starting by late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None.
Tropical Storm Flossie Update as of 11:00pm HST July 29th, 2019:
Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019 1100 PM HST Mon Jul 29 2019 Flossie's overall appearance has not changed much over the past several hours. There continues to be some dry air evident over the northern semicircle that is entraining into the storm's circulation and the SHIPS guidance also suggests there is about 10 kt of northerly shear across the system. This has resulted in most of the deep convection being confined to the southern semicircle for much of tonight. The initial intensity remains 55 kt, which is in agreement with the latest subjective satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB. The motion over the past 12 hours has been just south of due west, or 265/15 kt. A turn to the west to west-northwest is expected by later today or tonight and this general motion is expected to continue for the remainder of the forecast period as Flossie is steered by a broad mid-level ridge to its north. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the official NHC forecast track is very close to the previous one. Recently, deep convection has been trying to wrap around the northeastern portion of the circulation. If this trend were to continue, then strengthening would likely resume in the near term. There is about a 48-hour window remaining for Flossie to significantly intensify in a fairly favorable environment. The lastest SHIPS model Rapid Intensification Index (RII) shows a greater than 50 percent chance for Flossie to intensify by 25 kt over a 24 hour period. However, Flossie will need to consolidate its inner core soon if this rapid strengthening is to occur. The official NHC forecast calls for steady strengthening through much of today, followed by a 24 hour period of more rapid strengthening that would make Flossie a category 3 hurricane in 48 hours. After 48 hours, increasing shear and marginal SSTs are expected to cause a weakening trend to begin. The official intensity forecast is close to the previous forecast as well as the NOAA corrected consensus, HCCA, and the Florida State Superensemble consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 12.2N 119.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 12.3N 121.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 12.8N 123.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 13.6N 126.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 14.3N 129.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 16.1N 134.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 17.5N 140.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 18.5N 145.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
Area of Interest (Being Watched by the NHC) Update as of 8:00 pm HST July 29th, 2019:
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Mon Jul 29 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Flossie, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on recently upgraded Hurricane Erick, which has moved into the central Pacific basin. 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms a few hundred hundred miles south of Acapulco are associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds could become marginally conducive for development late this week while the system moves quickly westward, away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.