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Central & Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook # 12 for July 31st, 2019

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) continues to monitor 2 Tropical Cyclones and one area of interest in the Eastern Pacific & Central Pacific basins:


- Major Hurricane Erick: currently 615 miles ESE of Hilo & moving to the west at 13 mph. With maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (Category 3 Hurricane).


- Hurricane Flossie: currently 1,970 miles ESE of Hilo & moving West-Northwest at 15 mph. With maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (Category 1 Hurricane).


- Area of Interest in the East Pacific has 50% chance of formation in the next 5 days, we will continue to monitor this potential disturbance in the coming days.

Hurricane Erick had rapidly intensified into a major hurricane earlier today with maximum sustained winds peaking at 130 mph. The eye of Hurricane Erick, which was more distinct in satellite imagery earlier today has since disappear, showing signs of slight weakening. Based on the latest models for Major Hurricane Erick, it's still expected to past to the south of the Island of Hawaii around Friday morning into Saturday, most models were in an agreement that the center of Erick is still expected to past Hawaii Island approximately 45 to 150 miles to the south as Weak Hurricane/Strong Tropical Storm. Wet weather associated with Erick along with breezy and high surf conditions is expected to come onshore Thursday night going into Saturday evening.


Tropical Storm Flossie: it's again still too early to determine the exact track and strength of Flossie and it impacts to Hawaii Island, we will have a better idea of the projected forecast around Friday and Saturday at the earliest as it expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin around late Friday night and early Saturday morning.


A Flash Flood Watch will go into effect beginning 12:00 pm Thursday afternoon and remain in place until 6:00 am Saturday morning, however National Weather Service (NWS) advised it may be extended beyond Saturday morning, if conditions persist. (See Details Below)


The next HIRSC Team Update will be made at 23:00 Hours (11:00 pm) Wednesday Night.


Update on Tropical Storm Erick as of 5:00 am HST July 31st, 2019:

Hurricane Erick Advisory Number 17 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP062019 500 AM HST Wed Jul 31 2019 ERICK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 147.5W ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 147.5 West. Erick is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Erick is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Erick will arrive in the Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days, potentially producing dangerous surf conditions, mainly along east facing shores. Please consult products from the National Weather Service in Honolulu for more information. RAINFALL: Moisture associated with Erick will spread over the Hawaiian Islands by Thursday afternoon and produce heavy rainfall. Rainfall is expected to be heaviest over the east and southeast slopes of the Big Island of Hawaii.See the Flash Flood Watch issued by the National Weather Service office in Honolulu for more information.

Hurricane Flossie Update as of 5:00 am HST July 31st, 2019:

Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019 500 AM HST Wed Jul 31 2019 Flossie has the structure of a strongly sheared cyclone. Several recent microwave passes have revealed that Flossie's center is displaced to the northwest of all of its deep convection, and IR imagery shows a sharp cloud-top temperature gradient in the northwest quadrant of the hurricane. A blend of Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB is the basis for the initial intensity of 65 kt, however it is certainly possible that Flossie is weaker than that. Given the current structure of Flossie (or lack thereof), a substantial change was made to the intensity forecast. The global models indicate that the current shear affecting the cyclone will likely continue for another 24 h or so and Flossie is now forecast to become a tropical storm during that time. In fact, the statistical guidance suggests that Flossie will merely gradually weaken for the next 5 days. On the other hand, the GFS, ECMWF, and regional hurricane models indicate that the upper-level environment could become more favorable in a few days, so some re-intensification is possible at that time. The NHC forecast now closely follows the intensity consensus through 48 h and then blends back toward the previous forecast at 72 h and beyond, still favoring the dynamical models at that time. On the other hand, very little adjustment was required to the track forecast. The initial motion is 285/13 kt, and a persistent mid-level ridge to the north should keep Flossie moving west-northwestward or westward at a steady forward speed for the next 4 to 5 days. The track guidance remains very tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast is very close the typically reliable TVCE and HCCA aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 14.0N 125.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 14.5N 127.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 15.2N 130.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 15.8N 133.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 16.2N 135.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 17.2N 141.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 17.8N 146.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 19.0N 151.5W 60 KT 70 MPH


Area of Interest - Update as of 8:00 am HST July 31st, 2019:

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 31 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Flossie, located more than a thousand miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are forecast to be marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the low moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Watches/Warnings

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING The National Weather Service in Honolulu has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for the Big Island. * From Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning. * Moisture from Tropical Cyclone Erick is expected to move over the Big Island starting Thursday afternoon. Intense rainfall and Flash Flooding are possible as the cyclone passes south of the state, especially along the east and southeast facing slopes. * Flood prone areas, such as low spots in roads, may become impassable due to fast flowing water or deep ponding. The main flooding impacts are expected to occur from Hilo to Naalehu, with lower flooding potential elsewhere on the Big Island. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions are favorable for flash flooding. Flash flooding is LIFE THREATENING. Do not cross fast flowing water in your vehicle or on foot. Monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action if a Flash Flood Warning is issued. If you experience heavy rain or rising water, head to higher ground immediately.

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