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East Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook for July 16th, 2021

The HIRSC - Weather Team continues to monitor a tropical cyclone in the East Pacific Ocean Basin, Major Hurricane Felicia, which is located approximately 2,093 miles East-Southeast of Hilo, Hawaii Island.


The HIRSC - Weather Team is also continuing to monitor an area of interest that still has a very high chance of becoming an organized and named system in the next 2 days.

Published by: HIRSC - Weather Team

info@hiradioscannercommunity.com


The HIRSC Weather Team is continuing to monitor one tropical cyclone and another an area of interest in the East Pacific Ocean Basin. The first system, Major Hurricane Felicia is located approximately 2,093 miles East-Southeast of Hilo, Hawaii Island, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph and moving to West-Southwest at 9 mph. No major weather impacts are expected from Felicia in the immediate forecast and according to the latest models, Felicia is still expected to move south of Hawaii Island as a weak tropical storm (or remnant low) sometime late next week, however, the weather impacts to Hawaii Island are still unknown at this time and will have a better idea by mid-next week.


The second area is an area of interest is located 3,056 miles East-Southeast of Hilo, Hawaii Island, and has over a 90% chance of forming into an organized and named storm (which will be called Guillermo) in the next 2 days. Still, to tell the potential weather impacts for Hawaii Island. We will have a better idea of the impacts it could bring to Hawaii Island by mid-next week as well.


We will continue to monitor both tropical systems over the coming days and provide daily updates until the very end of both systems.

 

Major Hurricane Felicia Update:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
1100 PM HST Fri Jul 16 2021

...FELICIA CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A COMPACT CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 123.9W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 123.9 West. Felicia is
moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn to 
the west at a similar speed is forecast over the weekend. 

Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Felicia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Very gradual weakening is forecast over the 
weekend with a faster rate of weakening expected by early next week.

Felicia remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds 
extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and 
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

 

Area of Interest Update

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Felicia, located more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern 
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of 
southwestern Mexico are gradually becoming better organized.  
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional 
development over the next several days, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form later today and move west-northwestward to 
westward at around 15 mph, a few hundred miles offshore of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

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