• Admin

Eastern & Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook for July 22nd, 2019

National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring Tropical Depression Five-E in the East Pacific and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) has lowered chances of formation for the remnant low to 0%, as it passes to the southwest of the state.

Five-E will be come a Tropical Storm by Monday night. However, no effects are expected from Tropical Depression Five-E for Hawaii Island.

For the remnant low passing to the southwest of the state, moderate to heavy rains with potential for thunderstorms for Hawaii Island is forecasted beginning Monday going into Tuesday.

National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor Tropical Depression Five-E in the Eastern Pacific Basin.

Here's Update from the NHC (as of 2:00 AM PDT on July 22nd) and see the CPHC below:

The area of disturbed weather and low pressure system located about 600 nmi southwest of Baja California Sur that the NHC has been monitoring for the past several days has finally developed a sufficient inner-core wind field and enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on two ASCAT passes between 0430-0530Z that showed 30-31 kt wind vectors in the western quadrant, which corresponds well with the latest TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 360/08 kt due to the lack of a well-defined center until recently. However, the NHC model guidance is in surprisingly good agreement on the cyclone moving northward for the next 36-48 hours around the eastern periphery of a broad mid-level low/trough located to the west of the depression. By 72 h and continuing through 120 h, the cyclone is forecast to move northwestward as a weakening remnant low pressure system. The NHC forecast track lies close to a blend of the various consensus models, and is about midway between the GFS and ECMWF model solutions that bound on the eastern and western fringes, respectively, of the track guidance envelope. Modest north to northeasterly vertical wind shear and occasional intrusions of dry air are expected to hinder development and strengthening for the next 48 hours or so. By late on day 2 and especially by day 3, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26 deg C sea-surface temperatures, which will induce at least steady weakening despite decreasing vertical wind shear conditions during that time. The official intensity forecast is similar to but slightly higher higher than the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models, with the latter guidance calling for no strengthening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 15.0N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 16.3N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 17.9N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 19.2N 117.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 20.4N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 22.0N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z 23.2N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z 24.6N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Update from CPHC (Updated on July 21st, 2019 at 8:00 pm): For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W: 1. An area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii. Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive and development of this system is not expected while it moves northwestward around 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...0 percent Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

  • HIRSC Twitter