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Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook # 2 for July 27th, 2019

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor 2 disturbances in the East Pacific basin, Tropical Depression Six-E (expected to become Tropical Storm Erick by Sunday) and another disturbance offshore of Mexico (expected to be named Flossie in the coming days).

While it's still too early to tell the exact track of both disturbances at this time, however, early weather models show the island of Hawaii expected to receive wet weather from these disturbances beginning late next week into the start of the following week.

The HIRSC team will continue to follow these disturbances and provide daily updates as they become available.

Update on Tropical Depression Six-E (As of 11am HST):

Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 The depression has not changed in organization since earlier this morning. GOES-17 visible imagery suggests that the depression's center is embedded within an elongated northeast-to-southwest oriented trough, yet the cyclone also has a central area of convection and some convective banding. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on Dvorak estimates of T2.0 from TAFB and SAB. It should be noted that just-received ASCAT data suggests the possibility the system is at tropical storm strength, and if this is confirmed a Tropical Cyclone Update will be issued before the next advisory. A strong mid-level high is centered over the U.S./Mexico border, with the flow on its southern periphery pushing the depression quickly westward with a motion of 280/16 kt. The ridging is not expected to break down much during the forecast period, thus the cyclone is expected to maintain a westward or west-northwestward motion through day 5, with perhaps some slowing of its forward speed. The track models are tightly clustered, although most of them lie south of the previous official forecast. The new forecast has therefore been adjusted southward, but it lies along the northern edge of the guidance envelope. Vertical shear is expected to be low for at least the next 4 days, with sea surface temperatures ahead of the cyclone being generally between 27 and 29 degrees Celsius. Therefore, strengthening is anticipated, although the trend could be gradual in the short term while the cyclone attempts to form a more symmetric circulation. The updated NHC official intensity forecast lies close to the IVCN model consensus, bringing the system to tropical storm strength by tonight and then to hurricane strength on Tuesday. If the circulation becomes more well defined sooner, then the cyclone could strengthen a little more than indicated in the forecast, as suggested by the HWRF and HCCA models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 11.6N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 11.8N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 12.2N 130.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 12.6N 133.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 13.2N 135.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 14.3N 140.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 15.6N 145.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 16.7N 150.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

Update on 2nd Disturbance (or area of interest) as of 11am PDT:

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 27 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Six-E located between Mexico and the Hawaiian Islands. 1. An area of low pressure accompanied by disturbed weather is located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Conditions are favorable for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form early next week while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Next HIRSC Update will be made at 23:00 hours (11:00pm) Saturday Night.

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