Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook # 7 for July 29th, 2019

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor 2 Tropical Cyclones in the Eastern Pacific basin:

- Tropical Storm Erick: currently 1,260 miles ESE of Hilo & moving to the west at 17 mph. With maximum sustained winds of 70 mph and expected to become a hurricane by tomorrow afternoon.

- Tropical Storm Flossie: currently 2,600 miles ESE of Hilo & moving westward at 20 mph. With maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Flossie is expected to become a hurricane in the coming days.

Based on the latest models reviewed, Tropical Storm Erick is still expected to past to the south of the Island of Hawaii around Friday morning into Saturday, exactly how far south still remains unknown at this time. Wet Weather Associated with Erick is expected to come onshore Thursday night going into the weekend. Some breezy conditions are also expected as Erick passes to the south as weak Tropical Storm. Expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin by tomorrow morning.

Tropical Storm Flossie: it's again still too early to determine the exact track of Flossie and it impacts to Hawaii Island, we will have a better idea of the projected forecast around Friday and Saturday at the earliest as it expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin on Saturday.

Currently, No Watches or Warnings are in effect at this time related to these disturbances.

The next HIRSC Team Update will be made at 23:00 Hours (11:00 pm) Monday Night.

Update on Tropical Storm Erick as of 5:00 am HST July 29th, 2019:

Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 500 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019 Conventional IR satellite images suggest that the cloud pattern has not changed significantly during the past several hours, and in fact, it appears that it has deteriorated some. However, recent microwave data reveal the development of an eye, and most likely this feature will soon become apparent on conventional imagery. Based on an average of both UW-CIMSS objective and subjective Dvorak numbers, the initial intensity is kept at 60 kt in this advisory. The environment is currently favorable for intensification, and Erick is expected to become a hurricane at any time soon. The most aggressive intensity models are the corrected consensus HCCA and the FSU Superensemble FSSE which bring Erick to Cat 3 by 2 days, and so does the NHC forecast. By the end of the forecast period, when the cyclone is in the central Pacific region, it should encounter strong westerly shear and weakening should then begin. The official forecast does not depart from the previous one. Erick is moving toward the west or 275 degrees at 15 kt. The cyclone is currently being steered by the easterly flow around the subtropical ridge. The ridge is forecast to weaken slightly, and this pattern should provide a west-northwest motion of the cyclone. In addition, there is no evidence of any sharp turn to the north in any of the track models. The NHC forecast remains unchanged and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE and the corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 12.3N 136.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 13.0N 139.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 13.6N 141.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 14.3N 144.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 15.0N 146.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 16.0N 150.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 16.8N 155.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 17.5N 159.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

Tropical Storm Flossie Update as of 5am HST July 29th, 2019:

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019 500 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019 A series of fortuitous microwave images was helpful in locating the center of circulation and revealed significant banding improvements in the south semicircle portion of the cyclone. Although the subjective satellite T-number estimates only yield an intensity of 35 kt, subsequent SATCON analysis of 50 kt and the ADT estimate of 47 kt support increasing the initial intensity to 45 kt for this advisory. The ocean is warm and the shear is low, therefore, strengthening should continue and Flossie is forecast to become a hurricane in 24 hours. The GFS and ECMWF Decay SHIPS and the global models are showing increasing northerly vertical shear beyond the 48-hour period, which should curtail the intensification rate through the remainder of the forecast period. Both the NOAA HCCA and IVCN multi-model intensity consensus reflect this trend, and the official forecast was adjusted downward just a bit from the last advisory to agree with these models. It's still worth noting, however, that Flossie could undergo rapid intensification during the next 48 hours, as indicated by a 40 percent probability of that occurring in the SHIPS RI guidance. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/16 kt. A deep-layer ridge is well-established and anchored to the north of the cyclone, and should steer Flossie generally westward to west-northwestward through the entire forecast period. The model suite remains tightly clustered and no adjustments have been made to the previous forecast, which again is close to the better performing TVCN and HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 12.5N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 12.4N 116.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 12.3N 119.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 12.7N 122.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 13.3N 124.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 14.7N 129.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 16.1N 135.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 17.5N 141.0W 90 KT 105 MPH