Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook for October 4th, 2020

The HIRSC Weather Team continues to keep a close eye out on Tropical Cyclone Marie (currently a Category 1 Hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and moving to the Northwest at 7 MPH) in the East Pacific Region and located 1,515 miles East of Hilo, Hawaii Island.


Also, monitoring an area of interest off the western coast of Mexico in the eastern Pacific Ocean.


(See post for further details on Tropical Cyclone Marie and another area of interest)

Published by: HIRSC - Weather Team

info@hiradioscannercommunity.com


The HIRSC Weather team is monitoring Tropical Cyclone Marie, currently, a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 90 MPH and moving to the Northwest at 7 MPH and located approximately 1,515 miles East of Hilo, Hawaii Island. Tropical Cyclone Marie will continue on a weakening trend and will weaken to a Tropical Storm by the Monday morning.


Again, based on the latest weather models and graphics released, no major weather effects related to Tropical Cyclone Marie are expected for Hawaii Island based on the latest track released by the NHC and European Weather Centers.


The weather team is also monitoring an area of interest off the western coast of Mexico in the East Pacific, which has a 60% chance of becoming an organized tropical cyclone in the next 5 days. Will continue to monitor this area of interest and provide updates, should it become an organized system.


Based on the latest weather outlook for Hawai'i for the new workweek from the National Weather Service: A weak ridge northeast of the state is driving moderate trade winds today. The trades are bringing in drier and more stable air than the past few days with dew points now in the mid to upper 60s over most of the state. Expect the current weather conditions to continue through tonight.


On Monday, the ridge will begin to lift away to the northeast and a trough will slide in its place through midweek. As this occurs, the trade winds will weaken, resulting in some of the protected leeward getting daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes through Wednesday. Moisture will be a bit more limited through the next few days, so afternoon cloud cover and isolated showers at best are expected across interior and leeward sections. A few passing showers will be possible over windward areas as well, but no significant accumulations are expected over the next week. The ridge will nose back in during the second half of the week and could bring a slight uptick in winds.


The HIRSC Weather Team will continue to monitor Tropical Cyclone Marie and provide updates on the latest track to help our followers be aware of what is happening around us as far weather-wise.

Forecast Update on Tropical Cyclone Marie from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):


...MARIE WEAKENS SOME MORE OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 128.6W
ABOUT 1215 MI...1950 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 128.6 West. Marie is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). The hurricane is
forecast to move generally northwestward or west-northwestward
during the next several days with some reduction in forward speed 
commencing Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Marie should quickly weaken to a tropical storm
by Monday night, and further weaken to a depression by Wednesday 
night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the next 5 Days


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 4 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Marie, located in the western region of the basin.

1. Showers and thunderstorms have changed little since yesterday in 
association with an elongated area of low pressure located several 
hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico.  
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional 
development, and a tropical depression could still form during the 
next few days while it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. An area of low pressure could form south-southeast of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec early next week.  Thereafter, development, if any, 
should be slow to occur while it drifts northward offshore of the 
coasts of Mexico and Guatemala.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.


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