Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook for October 5th, 2020

The HIRSC Weather Team continues to watch Tropical Cyclone Marie (currently a Tropical Storm with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and moving to the West-Northwest at 9 MPH) in the East Pacific Region and located 1,485 miles East of Hilo, Hawaii Island.


Also, monitoring an area of interest off the western coast of Mexico in the eastern Pacific Ocean.


(See post for further details on Tropical Cyclone Marie and another area of interest)

Published by: HIRSC - Weather Team

info@hiradioscannercommunity.com


The HIRSC Weather team is monitoring Tropical Cyclone Marie, currently, a Tropical Storm with maximum sustained winds of 65 MPH and moving to the West-Northwest at 9 MPH and located approximately 1,495 miles East of Hilo, Hawaii Island. Tropical Cyclone Marie will continue on a weakening trend and will weaken to a remnant low by Wednesday, according to the latest models released.


The weather team is also monitoring an area of interest off the western coast of Mexico in the East Pacific, which has an 80% chance of becoming an organized tropical cyclone in the next 5 days. Will continue to monitor this area of interest and provide updates, should it become an organized system.


After further reviewing the latest weather forecast models for this week into the coming weekend shows a quiet weather pattern for the state. The Island of Hawaii should expect trade winds to prevail for most of the island through the week and bringing with it the possibility for windward and mauka showers, mainly during the evenings into the early morning hours. The Kona Coast is expected to see clear mornings and afternoon clouds and showers along the west slopes of Hualalai and Mauna Loa (South Kona region) over the next few days.


Remnant moisture from Tropical Cyclone Marie is expected to get caught in the trade wind flow, expected to increase windward and mauka showers with the possibility of heavy showers and thunderstorms over the island of Hawai'i sometime on next late weekend into early next week. (We will provide an outlook update, should the forecast change or updates be provided to us.)


The HIRSC Weather Team will continue to monitor the progress of Tropical Cyclone Marie and area of interest in the East Pacific Ocean and provide updates on the latest track released.

Forecast Update on Tropical Cyclone Marie from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):


...MARIE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 131.1W
ABOUT 1365 MI...2195 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 131.1 West. Marie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this 
general motion with a decrease in forward speed is anticipated 
during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and 
Marie is expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area 
by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the next 5 Days


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Oct 4 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
downgraded Tropical Storm Marie, located over the western part of 
the basin.

1. Showers and thunderstorms are still showing signs of organization
in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred 
miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico.   Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a 
tropical depression will likely form during the next day or two 
while the system drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure has formed a few hundred miles 
south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Some slight 
development of this system is possible over the next couple of 
days while it moves slowly northward.  Upper-level winds are 
forecast to become unfavorable for development by Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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