Hawaii Island Weather Outlook for February 4th, 2021

Cold Front is slowly clearing the Island of Hawaii, however, lingering showers as still possible through today. Drier and also cooler air is expected to take over later this afternoon going into the weekend. Record lows are possible over the next few days.

Published by: HIRSC - Weather Team

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Synopsis

A weakening cold front will move into the Big Island this morning, then shift east of the state tonight. Showers will be most prevalent along and ahead of this front, with a slight chance of thunderstorms holding over the Big Island through this evening. Meanwhile, much drier and cooler conditions will build in across the smaller islands today, with the cooler and drier air overspreading the Big Island tonight. Cool and dry conditions, with light winds will then prevail Friday through the weekend. A few light passing showers will move through north and west facing slopes and coasts at times, with a shower or two developing during the day over interior and mauka areas. Another weather system is expected to approach the state early next week, possibly bringing another round of widespread rainfall to the island chain.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a weakening cold front has cleared Maui and is approaching the Big Island early this morning. Meanwhile, a 1024 mb high is centered around 1200 miles west-northwest of Kauai. Moderate to breezy north-northwesterly winds are in place across the smaller islands, while winds over the Big Island remain weaker with land breezes present in many areas. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies over most of Kauai and the Big Island, while partly cloudy conditions prevail over most of Oahu and Maui County. Radar imagery shows scattered showers moving the Big Island in advance of the front, while post-frontal showers are focused mainly over north and west coasts and slopes of the smaller islands, with coverage the greatest across Kauai. Main short term concerns revolve around winter weather headlines and the potential for thunder today. The weakening cold front will continue to push eastward into the Big Island early this morning, then gradually shift eastward through the day, exiting to the east of the state this evening. The breezy north-northwesterly winds behind the front will begin to ease to moderate levels as the day progresses, then lower further tonight as high pressure begins to nose in from the west. Winds are expected to become light and variable Friday through the weekend, as the axis of high pressure settles right over the islands. This is expected to result in daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes statewide. Model solutions appear to be converging on a new cold front approaching from the west Monday, then moving southeastward through the island chain Monday night and Tuesday. This would bring breezy southwesterly winds in advance of the front, with breezy northwesterly winds building in behind it for Tuesday night and Wednesday. As for the remaining forecast details, much drier and cooler conditions are expected across the smaller islands today and tonight, with showers limited primarily to north and west facing slopes and coasts. The weakening and slow moving cold front is expected to keep shower coverage higher over the Big Island today and tonight however, as it moves through and slowly exits to the east. Although deep layer moisture will be on the decrease, plenty of lingering instability will remain over the Big Island into this evening, so a slight chance of thunderstorms has been added to the forecast through this evening. Fairly dry weather is then expected statewide Friday through Sunday night, with a few light showers possible in north and west facing slopes and coasts due to the prevailing west-northwest boundary layer flow, and a few light interior and mauka showers possible in the afternoon hours aided by sea breezes. Rain chances then appear to increase late Monday through Tuesday in association with then next cold front forecast to move through the islands. Drier weather appears to return by the middle of next week as high pressure noses in from the west. As for ongoing headlines... Moisture remains deep enough and temperatures cold enough to support wintry weather over the Big Island summits and the Haleakala summit through mid morning. As a result, the Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for the Big Island and Haleakala summits through 10 AM this morning.

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