Hawaii Island Weather Outlook for February 5th, 2021

Cold Front continues to move away from the Island of Hawaii and bringing with it cooler and also drier conditions that expected to last through the weekend. Record lows are possible.


Future models show another Cold Front expected to make its way through the state beginning on Monday (February 8th) through Tuesday (February 9th), bringing with it similar conditions experience earlier this week.

Published by: HIRSC - Weather Team

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Synopsis

The cool conditions are expected to linger into the weekend, with clouds and showers favoring the north and west slopes of most islands into Friday. The northwest winds will become light enough for a land and sea breeze pattern to set up by Friday afternoon, which will support mostly clear nights and mornings over the weekend. Although some interior cloud development will be possible through the afternoon hours, the dry air in place will limit rainfall chances. A front may bring another round of widespread rainfall early next week.

Discussion

Despite the drier and cooler air mass that has moved in over the state, clouds and brief/light showers continue to impact most north and west-facing slopes of the smaller islands this evening with the northwest winds in place. Expect this trend to hold overnight into Friday. Deeper moisture lingering over the Big Island combined with plenty of instability associated with the upper trough over the region was enough to trigger a few thunderstorms and heavy showers late this afternoon over portions of the Big Island. Rainfall accumulations reflect this and show up to around an inch over the past 6-12 hrs. Best rainfall chances overnight into Friday for the Big Island will shift to the Hamakua coast, with the northerly flow in place. Overnight lows will dip into the upper 50s to the lower 60s across the state. Expect the dry and cool conditions to linger over the weekend, with light northwest low-level winds continuing. Temperatures will hold just below normal with dewpoints dipping into the 50s each afternoon. The low-level flow will ease enough to give way to a land and sea breeze pattern, which will translate to mostly clear nights and mornings and some afternoon clouds across interior areas. Rainfall chances will remain limited with the dry conditions in place. Another front will affect the state early next week. As this system approaches on Monday, winds will shift out of the south and gradually increase, but forecast confidence decreases by Monday night. The GFS and ECMWF continue to show significant differences in the timing of the front, as well as the potential for extensive pre-frontal moisture to move over portions of the state. Compared to the GFS, the ECMWF is roughly 12 hours faster with the frontal passage, bringing the feature to Kauai Monday evening and clearing the Big Island Tuesday afternoon. We will have a better handle on this event within the next couple of days.

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