Stable weather conditions will continue to prevail over the Island of Hawaii, bringing with cooler, drier, and fair conditions around most parts of Hawaii Island through Sunday (February 7th).
A weak cold front will make its way through the state beginning Monday into Tuesday bringing possible wet weather for the Island of Hawaii on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Published by: HIRSC - Weather Team
Light and variable winds will prevail through the weekend, leading to mostly clear and cool nights and mornings. Expect a mostly dry weather pattern, with increased upslope clouds and showers possible in the afternoons. A front will move through the islands late Monday and Tuesday and will bring an uptick of showers and potentially thunderstorms. Cool and dry air will follow the front around midweek.
The trough that produced thunderstorms over the Big Island yesterday has now moved east and the atmosphere has stabilized. The latest 12Z sounding from Hilo shows a strong inversion at 6000 feet. For the rest of today, we should see fair weather conditions with a few light showers possible across the state. Another cool night is expected tonight as a land breeze develops and skies clear across most areas. For the summits of the Big Island, we do have a Wind Advisory in effect through the day today due to west to southwest winds of 45 mph. Winds are expected to gradually decrease through the day today and winds should drop below advisory levels this afternoon. On Sunday, the surface high currently west of the state is expected to shift over the state. This will lead to another fair weather day with light and variable winds and a few light showers possible in the afternoon. A cold front is expected to impact the state early next week. Latest models have been trending weaker with this front and the precipitation associated with this front is not as widespread as the front earlier this week. As this system approaches on Monday, we should see winds shift to the southwest. There is very limited moisture out ahead of the front, thus the main rainfall from this front will likely occur along and just ahead of the front. This should limit overall rainfall amounts and a quick shot of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected as the front moves through the state late Monday through Tuesday. Another cool and dry air mass will follow behind the front Tuesday into Wednesday with moderate to breezy north to northeast winds behind the front.
A dry, cool, and stable airmass over the region will allow VFR conditions to prevail. Light winds will allow for afternoon sea breezes, however, the dry airmass overhead will limit cloud and shower development. Expect land breezes to set up overnight with the light background flow. No AIRMETs are expected today.
A ridge near the Big Island will move northeast through Monday as a weak high northwest of Kauai moves east. The ridge will produce gentle variable winds over most areas through Sunday night, with moderate east winds over Big Island waters. Winds will shift rapidly out of the west, then northwest, on Monday as a front approaches from the northwest. The front will reach the Kauai waters Monday evening, move through the Oahu and Maui County waters Monday night and Tuesday, and dissipate as it reaches the Big Island waters by Tuesday evening. Locally strong north winds behind the front will shift to northeast trade winds by Tuesday night. The trade winds will shift out of the east by the end of next week. Overlapping northwest swells are producing high surf and elevated seas. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for seas 10 feet or greater in waters exposed to the large swells. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) is in effect for north and west facing shores of the smaller islands. As the northwest swells subside, seas will drop below 10 feet tonight and surf will drop below the advisory thresholds by tomorrow evening. A new large northwest swell is expected to start building Monday night and shift out of the north as it peaks Tuesday. Surf is likely to reach HSA heights along north and west facing shores. Another large swell is possible late next week.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Niihau, Kauai Windward, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Oahu Koolau, Molokai, Maui Windward West, Maui Central Valley, Windward Haleakala. Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Big Island Summits. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters.