Cooler and also drier weather will continue to prevail over the Island of Hawaii, bringing mostly fair conditions over most parts of the island. A weak cold front continues to most towards the state and will bring some rainfall to the Island of Hawaii Tuesday (February 9th) into Wednesday (February 10th).
Published by: HIRSC - Weather Team
Light and variable winds with stable conditions will prevail into Monday. A front will move quickly through the islands late Monday through Tuesday, bringing an increase in showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms as it moves through. Cool and breezy north winds will follow behind the front and our trade winds will return during the second half of the week.
Currently, at the surface, a weak 1017 MB high is centered around 275 miles west of Kauai, while a cold front and the next weather maker for the local area, is located around 800 miles west-northwest of the Garden Isle. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy conditions across the state. Meanwhile, radar imagery shows a few light showers over the coastal waters, with rain-free conditions over land. The main short term concern revolves around the approaching cold front and potential weather impacts Monday through Tuesday. High pressure will build east-southeastward during the next couple of days, passing directly over the islands later today, as a cold front steadily approaches from the northwest. This cold front is slated to move from northwest to southeast down the island chain late Monday afternoon through Tuesday. High pressure will then build eastward well to the north of the state Tuesday night through Friday, with a new cold front potentially approaching from the northwest next weekend. Light winds will remain in place through Monday, with daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes present in most areas. We could get a brief period with light south to southwest winds in advance of the front Monday and Monday night, followed by strong north-northeasterly winds Monday night through Tuesday night. Moderate to breezy trades appear to return on Wednesday, easing to moderate levels Thursday and Friday. Winds may ease further and swing around to the east- southeast next weekend in advance of the next approaching front. Rather dry weather can be expected statewide through the remainder of the weekend and much of next week. The cold front slated to move through the area will bring the best chance for rain during the next 7 days. Yet with the lack of any impressive return flow in advance of the front, we're not expecting a widespread rainfall event, with showers most likely along and immediately behind the front Monday night and Tuesday. Although thunder can't be ruled out entirely, given precipitable water values struggling to reach 1.2 inches, the potential for thunderstorms appears low. Will keep a mention of thunder in the forecast however due to the very unstable airmass aloft, but will remove any mention of heavy rainfall. We could see a bit of an increase in trade showers toward the tail end of next week, but no significant rainfall is expected.
VFR conditions will prevail today as the dry and cool air mass remains in place. Light winds will lead to overnight and early morning land breezes and afternoon sea breezes.
A high-pressure ridge over the islands will weaken through Monday morning as a weak cold front approaches the region from the northwest. Westerly to northwesterly winds will develop on Monday as the front moves into the northwestern waters. The front will move rapidly southeastward through the Hawaiian Islands from Kauai on Monday evening to the Big Island on Tuesday. Locally strong north through northeast winds will move over the region after frontal passage. Overlapping northwest swells will subside through early Monday. A new large northwest swell will build over the region starting late Monday, reaching low-end advisory thresholds along most north and west facing shores on Tuesday. Another large northwest swell is possible late next week. Stronger trade winds and increasing swell on Tuesday may reach Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels for all windward Hawaiian waters, the Alenuihaha Channel, and Big Island southeastern waters. Wind speeds will decrease as the swell subsides on Wednesday, with conditions over the coastal waters falling below SCA levels.