HIRSC Weather Team is closely monitoring Tropical Storm Cristina in the East Pacific Basin. Cristina is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday afternoon. Still too early to tell, if effects from Cristina will impact Hawaii Island weather.
Weather Team is also closely monitoring an area approximately 1000 miles south of Hilo and a very low chance of developing into an organized storm within the next few days.
Two other areas of interest off the western coast of Mexico both have a slight chance of becoming organized in the next few days.
HIRSC Weather Team will continue to monitor these systems as we are getting into the heart of the 2020 Hurricane Season. The next full HIRSC update on all systems will be made tomorrow evening (Wednesday evening, July 8th).
(See Post for further discussion)
Published by: HIRSC - Weather Team
Forecast Discussion on Tropical Storm Cristina:
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 ...CRISTINA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 106.5W ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 106.5 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days, keeping the cyclone well away from the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Cristina is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.
Forecast Discussion on Area of Interest in the Central Pacific:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM HST Tue Jul 7 2020
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak area of low
pressure around 1000 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, remain poorly
organized this evening. Conditions will remain hostile for any
development during the next 24 hours, with conditions becoming
slightly more conducive for development in a couple days.
Development of the system, if any, will be slow to occur as it
moves westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.
Forecast Discussion for two other areas of interest:
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Cristina, located a few hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. 1. An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next two or three days before environmental conditions become unfavorable. This system is expected to generally drift northward during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. 2. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week or this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward well south of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.