HIRSC Weather Team continues to closely monitor Tropical Storm Cristina in the East Pacific Basin. Cristina is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday evening/Friday morning. Still too early to tell, if effects from Cristina will impact Hawaii Island weather.
Weather Team was closely monitoring an area of interest south of Hawaii Island, however, has since dissipated and no longer being monitored by Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
Two other areas of interest off the western coast of Mexico both still have a slight chance of becoming organized in the next few days.
HIRSC Weather Team will continue to monitor these systems as we are getting into the heart of the 2020 Hurricane Season. The next full HIRSC update on all systems will be made tomorrow evening (Thursday evening, July 9th).
(See Post for further discussion)
Published by: HIRSC - Weather Team
Forecast Discussion on Tropical Storm Cristina:
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 ...CRISTINA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 109.4W ABOUT 370 MI...590 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 109.4 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Cristina will remain well offshore of the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Cristina could become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.
Forecast Discussion for two other areas of interest:
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Cristina, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 1. A nearly stationary broad area of low pressure located about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a limited amount of shower activity. Environmental conditions are anticipated to become increasingly unfavorable during the next day or so, and development of this system is not expected. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. 2. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward well south of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.