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Hurricane Barbara Information Update # 2 for July 2nd, 2019

Hurricane Barbara strengthened from Category 1 Hurricane to a Category 4 Hurricane overnight and continues to churn in the Eastern Pacific Basin and moving to the West Northwest at 14mph.

Hurricane Barbara Model as of 5:00 am

Currently, No watches/warnings for the Island and State of Hawai'i at this time and also no impacts from Hurricane Barbara is expected in the next couple of days. The team here at HIRSC will continue to monitor the forecast and track of Barbara and will provide updates over the next few days.

Future forecast going into next week Tuesday to Thursday (7/9 to 7/11) showing in an increase chance of moderate to heavy rain with the potential for thunderstorms to develop for the eastern half of the state (Maui County and the Island of Hawaii).

Spaghetti Models on Hurricane Barbara

Discussion on Hurricane Barbara from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as of 5:00 am HST: Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019 500 AM HST Tue Jul 02 2019 Conventional satellite imagery and microwave data reveal that the structure of Barbara has improved significantly. The hurricane has developed an eye surrounded by a ring of very deep convection and both features have been present during the past several hours. This improvement in structure has been accompanied by a substantial intensification, and based on both objective and subjective numbers of 6.0 on the Dvorak scale, the initial intensity has been adjusted upward to 115 kt. This is a marked increase of 55 kt since yesterday at this time. A prevailing warm ocean and low shear could fuel additional intensification during the next 12 hours or so. However, the hurricane is forecast to encounter cooler waters and strong shear primarily beyond 3 days resulting in weakening which could be much faster by the end of the forecast period. By the time Barbara reaches the Central Pacific, it is likely to be a tropical storm or even a remnant low. Barbara has been moving steadily toward the west and west-northwest or 290 degrees ar 12 kt. The hurricane is moving south of a deep-layer ridge of high pressure extending from the west coast of the United States westward across the Pacific. Barbara should move a little more to the northwest around the ridge in about 2 or 3 days, but as soon as the cyclone weakens and becomes shallow, it will likely move to the west steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and it is basically on top of the multi-model consensus. NOTE: Beginning this hurricane season, all National Hurricane Center eastern Pacific advisory products that utilize local time, and the corresponding graphical products, will use Hawaiian Standard Time (HST) instead of Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) or Standard Time (PST) if the final forecast point is west of 140W. Since Barbara's day 5 official forecast point is now west of 140W, advisory products are now being issued in Hawaiian Standard Time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 12.5N 122.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 12.9N 123.9W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 13.7N 125.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 14.6N 127.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 15.5N 129.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 17.8N 133.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 19.0N 137.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 19.0N 143.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

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