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Hurricane Barbara Information Update # 3 for July 2nd, 2019

Hurricane Barbara continues to maintain Category 4 Hurricane Status with maximum sustained winds at 145 mph, but is slowly decreased in speed to 10 mph and moving to the West Northwest.

Hurricane Barbara Model as of 5:00 am

Currently, No watches/warnings for the Island and State of Hawai'i at this time. However, future forecast for Tuesday 7/9 to Friday 7/12, shows post tropical moisture associated with Barbara may possibility bring moderate to heavy rains with the potential of thunderstorms for the Island of Hawai'i.

The team here at HIRSC will continue to monitor the latest forecast and conditions and will continue to provide daily updates as Barbara continues to move into the Central Pacific, which it's expected to on Saturday Afternoon (7/6).

Spaghetti Models on Hurricane Barbara

Discussion on Hurricane Barbara from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as of 5:00 am HST: Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019 500 AM HST Wed Jul 03 2019 It appears that the weakening process has already begun. The ring of intense convection surrounding the eye has warmed up and consequently, Dvorak numbers have continued to fall. Based on an average of the latest objective and subjective numbers, the initial intensity has been adjusted down to 125 kt in this advisory. Barbara's circulation is beginning to move toward cooler waters so a gradual weakening trend should prevail, although some minor fluctuations in intensity are possible today. Faster weakening is anticipated once the shear increases significantly in about 2 days. In fact, Barbara could lose its deep convection, and thus become post tropical, around the time it is forecast to cross 140W into the central Pacific basin. This is indicated by most of the intensity guidance. Barbara is moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 9 kt. The hurricane has reached the southwestern edge of the subtropical high that has been steering the cyclone, and this flow pattern should force Barbara to move slowly toward the northwest during the next 2 days or so. After that time, a new ridge is forecast to re-build north of the cyclone, resulting in a more westerly track. In addition, since Barbara is forecast to become a weak shallow cyclone, it will likely become steered by the low-level trade winds. The NHC forecast is not different from the previous one, and it continues to be in the middle of the guidance envelope and basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 13.9N 126.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 14.6N 128.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 15.7N 129.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 16.9N 131.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 18.0N 133.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 19.0N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 19.0N 144.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 08/1200Z 18.5N 150.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

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