Tropical Cyclone Outlook for August 11th, 2020

HIRSC Weather Team continues to track three areas of interest (One Tropical Cyclone and two potential cyclones) in the East Pacific.


Tropical Cyclone Elida, currently a category 1 hurricane offshore of the west coast of Mexico and expected to slowly downgrade into a tropical storm and depression by the end of the workweek. No weather impacts are expected for the Island of Hawaii.


Areas of interest: One approximately 2,500 miles southeast of Hawaii Island and One offshore the west coast of Mexico both have a 90% chance of becoming an organized system and forming tropical cyclones within the next 5 days. At this time, it's still too early to tell the potential impacts weather on Hawaii Island and HIRSC will continue to monitor these systems over the coming days.


We will continue to do our best to provide daily updates as information becomes available to us.

Published by: HIRSC - Weather Team

info@hiradioscannercommunity.com

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elida Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020

...ELIDA BEGINS TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 116.5W
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elida was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 116.5 West. Elida is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion should continue with some decrease in forward speed through
Wednesday.  A turn toward the northwest is expected on Wednesday 
night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 
km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected during the 
next day or so as Elida moves over colder water, and the 
cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical storm on Wednesday
and degenerate to remnant low on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of
the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next day or two.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

Observations and Summary on Forecast for all areas of interest:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Elida, located more than 400 miles west of the southern tip of the 
Baja California peninsula.

1. An elongated area of low pressure located about 1400 miles southwest 
of the southern tip of the Baja California continues to produce a 
broad of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
However, environmental conditions are expected to gradually become 
more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form within the next couple of days.  The system is expected to 
move slowly westward to west-northwestward over the next several 
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low 
pressure extends from just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
southwestward for several hundred miles.  Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days, 
and this system will likely become a tropical depression by late 
this week while it moves generally west-northwestward away from the 
coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

3. Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over 
the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of 
Central America.  Conditions are expected to be conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend while 
it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

4. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form over the far 
western portion of the eastern Pacific basin within the next couple 
of days. Some subsequent gradual development of this system is 
possible later this week while the system moves slowly westward 
toward the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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