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Tropical Storm Barbara Information Update # 5 for July 5th, 2019

Updated: Jul 6, 2019

Hurricane Barbara has downgraded from a Category 2 Hurricane to a Tropical Storm overnight with winds of 70 mph and moving to the Northwest at 13 mph.

Hurricane Barbara Model as of 5:00 am

Currently, No watches/warnings for the Island and State of Hawai'i at this time.

However, forecast going into Late Monday 7/8 to Friday 7/12, shows post tropical moisture associated with Barbara may possibility bring moderate to heavy rains with the potential of thunderstorms for the Island of Hawaii.

A small boost in surf along East and Southeast facing shores of Hawaii Island and Maui are expected, however most data seen will most likely be below advisory levels.

The team here at HIRSC will continue to monitor the latest forecast and conditions and will continue to provide daily updates as Barbara continues to dissipate and updates on the potential for hazardous conditions.

Discussion on Hurricane Barbara from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as of 5:00 pm HST: Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019 500 PM HST Thu Jul 04 2019 Barbara still appears to be a hurricane on the downswing. The cyclone had a surprising last gasp earlier this afternoon with a ring of cold cloud-tops surrounding the well-defined eye in infrared imagery, and satellite intensity estimates actually increased slightly since the last advisory. However, several microwave passes during the past 6 hours revealed that all of the active deep convection is limited to the northern semicircle of the hurricane, likely due to the continued effects of southwesterly shear. Furthermore, the eye of the hurricane has become poorly defined since around 0000 UTC. Although the intensity of Barbara is 85 kt for this advisory, rapid weakening should resume imminently due to the aforementioned shear, cold waters, and a relatively dry surrounding environment. No changes of significance were made to the NHC intensity forecast, which remains close to the intensity consensus, IVCN, and Barbara is still forecast to become a remnant low on Saturday. No changes of note were made to the track forecast either. Barbara's estimated motion is 310/10 kt, but a turn toward the west-northwest is anticipated on Friday. The cyclone should then turn westward as it weakens, steered by low-level easterlies, and will likely remain on that general heading until it dissipates east of the Hawaiian Islands early next week. The track guidance is in good agreement and the NHC forecast closely follows the simple track consensus TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 17.3N 131.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 18.1N 133.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 18.8N 135.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 19.1N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 19.2N 141.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 08/0000Z 18.7N 147.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

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