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Tropical Storm Barbara Information Update # 6 for July 5th, 2019

Tropical Storm Barbara continues to churn in the East Pacific with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and moving to the West at 14 mph. Expected to dissipated into depression by Saturday afternoon.

Another Disturbance offshore of Mexico has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical depression in the coming days.

Hurricane Barbara Model as of 5:00 pm HST

As of 6:00 pm HST, the National Weather Center (NWS) has issued an High Surf Advisory East and Southeast Facing shores of Hawaii Island and Maui until 6:00 am Monday (July 8th). Swell generated by Tropical Storm Barbara is expected to impact East and Southeast facing shores beginning tonight and to peak Saturday night into Sunday morning.

In addition to the High Surf Advisory, a Small Craft Advisory is also up for the Alenuihaha Channel and will remain up until 6am Monday (July 8th).

No additional watches or warnings are in effect at this time associated with Barbara.

The remnant moisture associated with Barbara is expected to roll onshore over the Island of Hawaii beginning Sunday night and continue into the middle of next week. Moderate to heavy rains with possibility of thunderstorms is expected.

Also in the Eastern Pacific, a low pressure system offshore of the West Coast of Mexico has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical depression. Should this system become a named storm, it will be named Cosme and will be the third named storm in the Eastern Pacific, should this system further develop.

The team here at HIRSC will continue to monitor all weather conditions during this hurricane season and will our best to provide updates on systems or events that could effect the normal lifestyle on Hawaii Island.

Discussion on Hurricane Barbara from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as of 5:00 pm HST: Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019 500 PM HST Fri Jul 05 2019 Barbara is fading fast. The cyclone has been devoid of deep convection since this morning and unless it has an unexpected resurgence of thunderstorm activity during the next few hours, it will likely be declared post-tropical later tonight. Barbara's intensity is set at 45 kt, assuming that the winds have decreased a little in 6 hours since a pair of ASCAT passes showed 45-50 kt peak winds. High shear, low mid-level moisture, and cool SSTs should prevent Barbara from recovering during the next couple of days, so a steady spin down is forecast. This should cause the system to open into a trough within the next three days, if not sooner. Barbara is now moving westward, with an initial motion of 275/12 kts. A low-level ridge to the north of the cyclone will keep it moving generally westward with a slight increase in speed for the next few days until Barbara dissipates. No major changes were made to the NHC track forecast, which is based primarily on a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 18.6N 136.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 18.7N 138.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 07/0000Z 18.6N 141.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1200Z 18.6N 144.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z 18.4N 148.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

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